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Districts as they will be in the 120th Congress (Jan 2027), including the new TX, CA, FL, NC, OH, UT, TN, LA and AL maps. Missouri shown on its 2022 map pending litigation.
Colors show the leading party’s share of the displayed market probabilities; they do not show vote share. Select a race for candidates, prices and source links. The balance bar groups seats by market-implied likelihood and includes senators not up for election. Its D/R totals count each seat once for the party currently ahead, including races in the toss-up band. Exact ties and independent leaders stay in the toss-up band, which notes how many there are, and count for neither party. The line below the bar lists every band, so its counts add up to the whole chamber. A one-sided quote above 50% is enough to identify a leader. Under each chamber’s bar, “Now” counts the seats held today from official sources: the Clerk of the House (by district, including vacancies), the U.S. Senate (Democrats include the independents who caucus with them) and the National Governors Association. Each party’s change compares those seats with the seats its odds favor: its gains (races it leads for seats it does not hold today, including vacant seats) minus its losses (seats it holds but does not lead, including exact ties). In House states with new maps, each 2026 district is compared with the member who represents that district number today. Select a party’s change to outline the seats flipping to it; click anywhere else to return to the normal view. Hover over a party’s change for its gains, losses and probability-weighted expected seats. The linked figure is the leading party’s probability of winning control, or of holding more governorships, from the selected source. A race with a single candidate on the ballot is shown as won outright and labeled unopposed in every source. Teal represents independent or other seats.
Senate & governors. 33 Class 2 Senate seats plus special elections in Florida and Ohio; 36 governorships are on the ballot.
Ballot measures. Statewide measures on the November 3 ballot. Odds are the probability the measure passes.
Other races. Statewide offices, supreme courts and legislative chambers. Colors use a continuous red-to-blue gradient from the displayed party probabilities where available. Races without odds from the selected source are shown as unpriced; research ratings do not fill gaps in its coverage. Independent leads, nonpartisan contests and retention votes retain distinct colors. For legislatures, color shows the most competitive chamber on the ballot using available market quotes. Hatched districts and states have no odds from the selected source.
Your ballot. The Your ballot tab turns an address, a city or a ZIP code into the contests on that ballot. Street addresses go from this browser to the U.S. Census Bureau’s geocoder; looser searches and suggestions as you type come from Photon (OpenStreetMap), and a city or ZIP code is placed at its center and marked approximate. Census returns the congressional district (120th Congress), county, city and state legislative districts; Missouri is placed on its 2022 lines, which this map uses. The ballot lists federal, statewide and legislative contests, high-court seats, statewide measures and the county and mayoral races in this dataset. For your legislative seats it names your current legislators (Open States) and the 2026 candidates where Wikipedia lists them, beside the chamber-control odds. Where a Google Civic Information API key is configured, it also lists the local offices and city, county and school measures on your ballot. Each candidate’s bar is that candidate’s live probability from the selected source; a party-only market is shown on that party’s nominee when the party has exactly one, and each measure shows its probability of passing, including the city and county measures that have a market. Minor contests are compact. Your ballot is saved only on this device; a share link carries your districts, county and city, never your address. It is not an official sample ballot.
Price history. Each race card charts every priced candidate on the selected source over the past hour, day, week, month or the life of the market (select the card to switch ranges and read off any point). Kalshi history follows its displayed last-trade price, Polymarket’s its price history, and Manifold’s is rebuilt from its trades (up to 1,000 per range). It is fetched through the MTS odds service and cached for 30 seconds to an hour depending on the range. Pro view shows every map at once on large screens.
Mayoral races. Races still to be decided in cities of 100k+, sized by population. Zoom in to separate them.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold are polled every 60 seconds. The odds selector applies to the map, race cards, seat tallies and chamber-control indicators. Each view uses only its selected source; unavailable races remain unpriced. Kalshi odds follow its displayed last-trade probabilities, including complementary outcomes in two-party election markets. Polymarket uses bid/ask midpoints. Kalshi is selected initially. Your source choice is saved on this device. Manifold is a community prediction market; the map uses the markets Manifold curates on its 2026 election page, which cover every House, Senate and governor race and most ballot measures. Binary party markets use the complementary outcome for the opposing side; separately priced independent and other outcomes retain their own probabilities. Party-level odds are not assigned to individual candidates without a matching candidate market. A quote older than three minutes is excluded from live calculations. Only fresh market quotes are displayed. While prices load or a market is unavailable, its odds remain unpriced; old research snapshots are never substituted. Market prices reflect trading and liquidity, not an election forecast from MTS.
Candidate, officeholder, rating and district-line research is from Theo’s September 21–22, 2026 dataset. Live refresh updates prices; it does not update candidate lists, ratings or district boundaries. Sources: Polymarket, Kalshi, Manifold, Ballotpedia, Wikipedia, Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and Census geography.
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